5 Selling Lessons From Nuclear Fusion Promise
Breakthrough's aplenty since I last blogged on our fusion endeavours fourteen months back.
I read on today's raw pace of these with this initial framing;
"65pc of fusion insiders think fusion will generate electricity for the grid at viable cost by 2035, and 90pc by 2040".
Personal jetpacks this ain't.
This also brought to mind a trio of wisdoms.
"There are no experts on the future". Most recently voiced by Matt Ridley.
"Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years". Chiefly attributed to Bill Gates.
"The measure of intelligence is the ability to change". Albert Einstein, supposedly.
Who knows how true those immersed in fusion will turn out to be. Yet there's the sniff of perception-as-reality here. Where are our insiders? What do they think is coming down the track, either quicker than anyone realises or flying in out of practically nowhere?
The first tip being, why not ask them?
Second, is what those cheering from the sidelines implore;
"it is time to drop the old joke that fusion is 30 years away, and always will be".
As well as springboarding off the previous point, in tackling what might be considered a continually slipping horizon in your world - chuckling otherwise I'd sob, as I think on all those eternal prospects kept on forecasts always almost but not quite ready to buy, vaunted competitor new products forever about to be but never actually released, and even the promised extra bonuses by management that always have reason to not materialise our way - is the gnawing truism;
'everything you use was once brand new too'.
Fusion power, proponents insist, when onstream can undercut ongoing costs and so consumer prices. At fractions of the set-up and disposal charges too.
An incredible claim.
Which brings us to our third steer. Whilst initial investment to make discovery that sticks is big, everyone able is in. Leading this gold rush, is America. They currently host 25 of the world's 43 current hopefuls. Next place shared by England, hosting three world-class fusion start-ups but seemingly cleverly, spanning the two key rival technologies. As you'd expect, the Chinese Communist Party has joined in. No doubt busy thieving the rest of the worlds nous as their State Council states, “controlled nuclear fusion is the only direction for future energy".
We've recently had virtual reality, blockchain and latterly ᴀɪ. Beyond these macro grabbers, there's likely something closer to home everyone wants to or is working on in your space.
What is it? And how can you help - in no matter how small a manner - make it happen (quicker, cheaper, better)?
Fourth, it appears that outside the technology, even those most well-informed are unaware of leap live right now. Quantum, even. The breakthrough apparently down to superconductors. For instance, 'much stronger magnets mean that we can build a plant that is 40 times smaller'.
An astronomical rate of improvement.
What multiplier are your prospects needing to greenlight your project?
It's likely a lot less than this 40x.
You could ask them.
'What payback do you normally need to see to go ahead?'
You might (should) know what uplift you typically bring. You could use that as a qualifier too.
Fifth and finally, when asked when fusion would come of age, the man who led the completion in 1954 of the first ever machine at the core of the tech, Lev Artsimovich, apparently answered, “when humanity really needs it”.
As I favour wizards over prophets, it's a timestamp that appeals to me.
What is it that those in your target market need? Really need? If you can help bring it about, their future could also lie in your hands.