Combine Half-Shot Of Mathiness With Two-Parts Agents To Out-Forecast Groupthink Economists

Economists. I’ve had my say on them many, many times over the years. Never listen to them. The collective noun could well be a Peter of economists. They cry wolf over and over again. And when said beast does appear, it hits them before they even knew it.

Given the recent heralding of ultra-posh baby names by Tatler – and how could you ever doubt that Figgy was a girl’s name of supreme breeding – maybe that should be an Npeter. The N apparently silent. Like they should all be.

So I was delighted with London’s Telegraph writer Jeremy Warner’s takedown of this inept, “dismal” band of fairground crystal ball gazers.

He cites one excuse for their incompetence given as ‘groupthink’. On which, how’s this definition for a wonderful solution sales insight;

the perils of “groupthink” – where opinion hugs the consensus for fear of derision – or more conspiratorially, to vested interest and deliberately misleading intent

Before quoting a Paul Romer and his “mathiness” thesis. With an interesting note for our own forecasting, where your workings are fancy equation obsessed with no grounding in the real world.

Is there a remedy?

Well, apparently ABMs are the new superfood. Agent Based Models. Their fresh sourcery? Apparently to now take into account human behaviour of those within any system under examination and their interaction with it.

I’m not kidding.

When it comes to Sales, I often bemoan the lack of ‘mathsy’ funnel management. Forecasts still even today remain chiefly ‘will they-won’t they’ fingers-in-the-air hunchwork. A pledge then firmly laid at the poor salesperson’s door in the event of recurring inaccuracy.

Remembering the unforgivable, life crushing waste that is coming second on a bid, I always recommend thinking process.

What are the half-dozen or so things that when they happen on a deal, you pretty much win them every time?

Ticked each off on what’s in your present pipeline?

Then great, Forecast it.

And keep refining so your reputation doesn’t join the Peters in the sewer.

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