I often ridicule forecasters. From the economic to pollsters to weather.
I cannot believe the amazing pay they shuffle into their ever-deepening pockets.
This week it’s the turn of the OECD to face the UK media ire.
And quite right too.
I’ll hold my hand up. I’ve never had time for those of their ilk. Their predictions of current UK economic performance yet again abysmally incorrect. Not just off by a small margin, but fail by a 180° opposite.
Apparently, as one commentator put it, they have trouble with “dynamic effects”.
And these are…?
Anything that happens. When it means their precious forecast gets ruined.
Honestly. It’s beyond parody.
Still, there is surely something in this for the salesperson.
Regards Brexit, where they were ignorantly dismissive of countries rushing to import more UK goods, our island nation feeling liberated prompting extra spending at home and underlying strength stubbornly refusing to melt away, we too have deal pressures that can curtail our plans.
What’s the list of dynamic effects that can scupper our bid?
From competitor price drops to executive musical chairs to techno-upheaval to empire building to change deniers to budget reallocation to spec rewrites to strategic reversals.
And at the micro-level, many more besides.
How factored in to your standard forecast routine are they?