Win Creep

Wildly oscillating headlines accompany what eminent historian Niall Ferguson terms 'Gulf War III'.

Wherever you sit on the horseshoe, you likely desire Iran's mullahs to not have nukes, end exporting terror, have their criminal thievery of national assets ceased, stop murdering tens of thousands of peaceful Persians, Kurds and Balochs in cold blood, and put an end to rampant, butchering misogyny.

As so often the case, on the problem, that we can generally agree. The preferred solutions however, can drastically differ.

The current American administration's answer is labelled by some (many?) as blanket bomb first, then see where it leads.

There's been endgames aplenty cited by those in charge.

It reminds me of the USA in Afghanistan twenty-five years back.

Their display of 'shock and awe' availed them with a 'win' inside just a few weeks.

But. Yes, there's a but.

Perhaps buoyed by such swift rinse, they then kept resetting the bar ever higher. Goals got stretched. Until they ultimately lost pursuing the unrealistic goal of liberal democracy with elected two-term-max president and the like.

We regularly experience a version of this from the other side. Project creep can be so pernicious it is known to derail many a promising sale. When an incumbent or other, secretly preferred option calls those shots, we're in sticky terrain.

In short, any bid where we are not shaping what happens presents such red flag as to preclude our continued presence.

On the other side, we too ought pay heed to theses conflicts' message.

No matter the temptation, to load ever more into our primary win can ask for trouble.

Yes by all means tee up where apt our future wins, but do not do anything to jeopardise that all important first. One win at a time.