"At certain Silicon Valley parties, tech bros have started introducing themselves with their names and “p(doom)” numbers, their personal estimates of the likelihood AI will destroy humanity."
Trendspotting of London Times columnist James Marriott last week.
Expressed as numeric probability anywhere between zero and one, it could be a useful way, admittedly glancing by dark humour, to gauge whether someone's glass is more half-empty or half-full.
How you approach a person citing p(doom)=0.9 would probably differ to those who might self-profess to p(doom)=0.1.
The instant I read this, I wanted to try it out with a prospect right away.
In one specific case, first explaining the concept, before pause to jointly rolling eyes at the craziness of the breed in question. Then though, remixing. Substituting out the term 'doom' for what I already knew to be a threat to them.
More broadly, that could be any company, product or movement. Crucially eliciting one to which you offer antidote.
The beauty of 'doom' as a label hails in part from its finality.
Whilst stark existential threats may prove tricky to excite corporate buyers, there's still a raft of undesirables they'd be keen to stave off.
Such as lessening market share, profit squeeze or stalled new product take-up.
p(looming issue)= ___ ?
Or still use p(doom), where doom relates to say, that new outfit set up to come attack our core base.
When you know where they think they might sit, you can better craft plans accordingly.