Oilmageddon, Market Death Spiral And Your Forecast


It can be a perilous recreation. Tune into any of the business tv channels for a few minutes. You’ll likely think we’re all doomed. Spivs the world over wail about global markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities. Bears one and all.

A dastardly question recurs.

‘Are we heading for another global recession?’

Among the yes, nos and maybes, here’s my favourite answer heard;

the market has predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.

So delicious, I was compelled to search on.

To my joy, it has many forebears. Chaps called Samuelson (9 of 5) and Rosenberg (27 of 11) among them over the years.

It does seem that a stock market crash rarely heralds worldwide contraction in the real world.

Yet these ratios are worryingly skewed. Who’d want the (in-)credibility of such low forecasting?

Surely it is the same when we put our head on the block. Sadly not every line of our forecast comes in. Although winners should aim that high.

Yet we don’t want to be known for Peter crying wolf. Buyer incentives, pre-sale resource and delivery promises would quickly erode if we claimed everyone a cert.

Make sure you’re well ahead of the share dealers 4:1 and you can be disarmingly on the money.

As a footnote, this works the other way too.

How many projects has your prospect successfully delivered? Whether as a corporate entity or looking at individuals.

If they outperform markets then you could use that as neat leverage too.

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